Introducing the Double Jeopardy Law: Few Users, and Not Loyal Either

09 September 2024

Sometimes, I receive complaints from clients about the difficulty of growing their brands, especially those that have only been in the market for one or two years. Even well-established brands often struggle to compete, particularly against category leaders. This is a situation I anticipate, especially for new or less narratively strong brands. You, or perhaps your brand, may be experiencing the double jeopardy law.

Quoting Byron Sharp's book, “How Brands Grow Part 2”, the concept of double jeopardy was first introduced by William McPhee at NBC in 1963. Double jeopardy refers to a phenomenon where new or small brands with low penetration or popularity tend to suffer two disadvantages: they have fewer customers and lower loyalty compared to larger brands.

If this situation persists, it's no surprise that a brand finds it difficult to grow. Based on several studies we have conducted, brands with high penetration or popularity typically have more loyal customers compared to other brands. For example, in the shampoo category:

  • Brand A has a penetration rate of 64% (out of 100 people, 64 have purchased Brand A) and an average number of usage of 1.1 (compared to an average of 1 other brand).
  • Brand B has a penetration rate of 20% and an average number of usage of 3.1 (compared to 3 other brands).

The chances of customers switching are higher with Brand B because they are exposed to 3 other brands ready to attract them when they encounter issues with Brand B, or when one of these 3 brands launches an appealing marketing campaign.

So, how do you tackle the double jeopardy law? The key is to increase brand penetration. Marketing and communication channels must be precise and effective. In research, we can look at respondents' answers about their sources of information and reasons for choosing a brand. However, what I often recommend is evaluating heavy users in that category who might be using the brand leader. Heavy users typically have a deep understanding of the category and experience pain points with the brand they are using. They stay because no other brand can address those issues. This is where smaller brands can step in. Check if our product can solve those pain points. If it can, create communication that convinces heavy users that we are better at it. If they are interested and try our product, and it proves to meet their expectations, they will recommend it to their friends, and our brand will begin to gain recognition and grow. The studies we conduct, such as product tests and usage and attitude research, are aimed at overcoming the double jeopardy law.

So, don't be afraid of getting caught in the double jeopardy law. We are here to help.